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Monte Carlo
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A Monte Carlo tool can be a great addition to your business decision-making effectiveness. Here are a few case studies to help you determine if it will be a good fit for your organization.

Monte Carlo simulation was named after the famous gambling city in Europe because its strength lies in determining or demonstrating multiple possible risk-based outcomes, given a range of inputs, and the statistical probabilities of such outcomes. Since this resembles the perfect gambling predictor, the methodology was given the Monte Carlo name.

All businesses are subject to risk and forecast error. Even if you are in the most stable business, there is always a range of risks than can increase or decrease the results of any future outcome. This is where a Monte Carlo tool can help.

For example, let's assume you own a string of delicatessens and you have 10 years of monthly historical accounting data to work with. Some months generate positive cash flows and others generate negative cash flows. You are interested in determining the probability of positive cash flows in the next month because you are determining how much money to borrow to launch another location. If you take the last 10 years of monthly cash flows and enter them into your Monte Carlo tool, then run 10,000 simulations, you will get a very good probability distribution of cash flows to work with. The tool will give you estimated statistical probabilities of positive or negative cash flows, of a certain amount, with a certain confidence level. At the end you will get an answer such as "There is a 65% probability that the cash flows will exceed $15,000, 5% probability the cash flows will be less than -$5,000 and 5% probability the cash flows will exceed $25,000 in the next month."

Another example could be the probability of a breakdown lasting greater than 1 day for a fleet of trucks. Using historical breakdown data, you can use a Monte Carlo tool to simulate the likelihood of 1, 2, 3 and 5-day breakdowns in your truck fleet. This assumes that the fleet is made up of the same trucks with the same average age and condition, driving on the same roads as the historical data suggests. You can then use these probabilities, multiplied times the average cost of repairs and loss of transportation fees, to estimate future breakdown costs to the company. In a highly competitive business such as trucking, estimating your costs with a high accuracy level is critical to pricing the product or service and ensuring you don't lose money.

A more sophisticated way to use Monte Carlo tools is to first develop an explanatory model for supply and demand in Excel or computer code, using economic and demographic inputs such as unemployment, interest rates, age, sex, and the like. Next, the Monte Carlo simulation is run 1000s of times on many levels of inputs, with each input possibly constrained by high and low limits. The analysis then outputs a distribution of estimated supply and demand figures for the range of inputs it was randomly given. From this probability distribution or histogram, you can then derive the estimated range of supply and demand, sensitivities to each input, and pinpoint percentage likelihoods at any level.

These are just three examples of the infinite uses of a Monte Carlo tool in making more effective risk-based business decisions.

To read further about the power of using a Monte Carlo tool in your business decisions, visit http://www.financial-edu.com/monte-carlo-software--idecide.php.

Monte Carlo Prices Top European League

Traditional rules of supply and demand in the real estate market are likely to see Monte Carlo's property prices rise further in the short and medium term, according to a Monaco property company.

One bedroom apartments in the Principality are already at the million Euro level and the lack of properties coming to the market and the absence of new builds could make today's prices seem like a bargain in five years time.

'Three years ago there were six hundred properties on the market', claim the company, 'Now there are two hundred. Coupled with increased demand, especially from the UK, prices have been rising and could go quite a bit further if current trends continue.'

Visitors to Monaco and Monte Carlo are often surprised at the lack of apartments for sale as they can see new buildings under construction.

'The apartment buildings under construction are for local Monaco people', they explain, 'Rather than for the open market where anyone can buy a property. The situation is unlikely to improve in the short and medium term but the number of buyers is rising - and consequently so are the prices. Monaco now has the highest priced property in Europe.'

Other reasons for the shortage of property in Monaco include that residents are holding on to their apartments longer, enjoying the tax free status Monaco affords, and as the owners see their property rising in value holding on to it as an investment.

To maintain residency in Monaco, residents need to live in the Principality for six months a year. Winter time often sees a lot of apartments mothballed with the owners wintering in the Caribbean.

The Monte Carlo Economy

With property prices in Monaco the highest in Europe and one bedroom apartments after closing costs starting at around a million Euros, longer term the shortage of property will be helped by a new island being built off Monte Carlo.

It's thought unlikely that the new island to be built off Monaco will reduce prices much overall though, despite the increase in the number of property units available as Monaco property is always in demand.

It is believe that most new apartments will be sold to investors off plan well in advance of any building work starting.

'The problem with property in Monaco is not the lack of buyers', they say, 'but more the lack of good properties for buyers to choose from. Hopefully the new island will address that. Everyone in Monaco is aware of how important the environment is thanks to Prince Albert's initiatives in pushing it up the political agenda, and any new developments will be low rise. With the good weather in Monaco expect to see plenty of solar panels on the roofs to make the buildings energy efficient'.

It is possible that the new island will be incorporated into future Monaco Grand Prix, which could give more overtaking opportunities.

During his first year Prince Albert has successfully made the people of Monaco aware of global warming and taken steps to combat it, and for his second year and beyond he is likely to be campaigning just as hard at home and abroad on the issue he believes in so much.

About the Author

For a guide to Monaco and Monte Carlo, including the weather in Monte Carlo and advice on how to learn French visit YourMonaco.com

Monte Carlo?????????

i'm planning on getting a monte carlo 1981-1988 i want to know what you think about these cars and if you owned one how you liked it and disliked it, were there anyproblem areas or common problems? rust areas? how was your insurance? and how old were you when you had the car?
yeah this is not gunna be a daily driver, i love fixing stuff

I had one for about five years and it was one of the best cars I have ever owned.

McLaren Formula One driver Hamilton of Britain talks with his engineer at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix in Monte Carlo
McLaren Formula One driver Lewis Hamilton of Britain talks with his engineer at the end of the second practice session of the Monaco F1 Grand Prix in Monte Carlo May 13, 2010. REUTERS/Max Rossi

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